Is Monaco ripe for a surprise result ?

Jarno Trulli Monaco 2004 Podium

Every year when Monaco GP comes people expect or hope for some surprise result. The track where overtaking is next to impossible (well Barrichello may not agree after his last lap in 2005), where there are no run off areas and the walls are unforgiving is the prime candidate for a messy result of the year. But how likely the surprise results in Monaco actually are ? This is what Fernando Alonso had to say a week ago:

“That’s what we always think when going to Monaco or at least we all think Monaco is so different that things will change, but in the end it’s always a McLaren or a Ferrari winning or Renault like in 2006. The cars that have been winning all season arrive at Monaco and win too so in the end we see less surprises than we initially expect.”

When was the last time we had a surprise winner in Monaco ? So let’s look back few years to see who were the winners:

2006 – Fernando Alonso – Renault
2005 – Kimi Raikkonen – McLaren-Mercedes
2004 – Jarno Trulli – Renault
2003 – Juan Pablo Montoya – Williams-BMW
2002 – David Coulthard – McLaren-Mercedes
2001 – Michael Schumacher – Ferrari
2000 – David Coulthard – McLaren-Mercedes
1999 – Michael Schumacher – Ferrari
1998 – Mika Hakkinen – McLaren-Mercedes
1997 – Michael Schumacher – Ferrari

To certain extent perhaps in 2004. Ferraris have dominated the season but Jarno Trulli in Renault won in Monaco (ahead of Jenson Button). Surprise perhaps but not a shocker. Have to remember that Renault and BAR were up ther in top 3 with Ferrari that year. I think we need to go a further year back, to 1996, for the last shocker – the wet race and win by Olivier Panis in Ligier.

We have been waiting for another shocking result for quite a while. This will be the first proper street race without traction control after many years. There are chances of rain for qualifying and for the race. So is Monaco ripe for a surprise result ?

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Photo: RenaultF1

5 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Generally, it’ll be the pole-setter who’ll win. This, of course, depends on the fuel situation. If I were Alonso I’d be short-fueled at the start in order to have a shot at pole knowing there’s likely to be a safety-car situation in the first ten laps.

    I’ll reserve judgement depending on the use of tyres by McLaren, and what compound Bridgestone take to the principality. I’ll also keep one eye on the weather forecast.

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  2. klokanNo Gravatar says:

    Seems to be interesting weekend also in the view of weather forecast – maybe the race we are looking for. I am not expecting any surprise from Alonso. Maybe Massa will continue with the attack for 1st…

  3. [...] To sum it up – We have unpredictable season, Monaco is probably to most unpredictable race on the calendar and we have unpredictable weather ahead. Should be fun weekend and we may be up for some surprise. [...]

  4. StewNo Gravatar says:

    This is going to be a hard one to predict. I see Massa near the front but whoever is on the front row and can run clean will probably win.

    I’m hoping for a dry race. I don’t want only 4 or 5 cars finishing the race. Give me DRY! :)

  5. nieuweNo Gravatar says:

    Well if it’s wet I’m not surte hamilton will end up near the top pack at the end. He corners to rough to be fast on this track, and rain…. he’ll crash out

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